In line with a current report by crypto asset supervisor Bitwise, Bitcoin (BTC) is well-positioned to perform as “portfolio insurance coverage” towards sovereign default dangers. The report comes at a time when international debt-to-GDP ranges are breaching new highs, sparking considerations a few potential international debt disaster.
Bitcoin: A Resolution For World Debt Defaults?
The report highlights Bitcoin as an ‘fascinating different’ for buyers in search of to protect their wealth throughout eventualities akin to sovereign defaults or hyperinflation. It states:
In a theoretical mannequin, Bitcoin can function “portfolio insurance coverage” towards the default of a basket of main sovereign bonds with a present “truthful worth” of round 219k USD primarily based on this mannequin.
To offer context, international public debt ranges are steadily climbing. Just lately, the US public debt surpassed $36 trillion, equating to 123% of the nation’s GDP. What’s extra regarding is the accelerated tempo of debt development since September 2024, amounting to $917 billion in only a brief span.
This rising fiscal debt isn’t restricted to the US. Different main economies, akin to France and the UK, are additionally experiencing unprecedented will increase in public debt, elevating alarm bells for bond buyers.
The Bitwise report cites Bitcoin as a compelling different to gold in such eventualities. It highlights that Bitcoin’s decentralized community structure basically makes it a ‘trustless system,’ setting it other than sovereign bond contracts, which depend on the issuer’s means to repay its debt.
The report additionally mentions that the weighted common default likelihood for G20 nations over the subsequent decade is presently 6.2%. As compared, the US has a weighted common default likelihood of round 4.5%. The report notes:
Based mostly on this mannequin, this might suggest a “truthful worth” of Bitcoin of round $219,000 per BTC already. Within the unlikely occasion that every one G20 sovereign bonds would default concurrently, the theoretical “truthful worth” of 1 single BTC inside this mannequin would enhance to roughly $3.5 million.
That mentioned, the report emphasizes that main economies are unlikely to default within the short-term. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mannequin provides perception into the place BTC’s worth may soar if such a state of affairs have been to happen.
Bitcoin Holding Regular Amid Macro Uncertainties
For the reason that March 2020 coronavirus crash, Bitcoin has largely remained resilient, regardless of dealing with important macroeconomic headwinds over the previous 5 years. As an example, BTC worth exhibited resiliency after the US Federal Reserve introduced its intention to gradual rate of interest cuts in 2025.
Equally, the resurgence of the Bitcoin ‘kimchi premium’ throughout South Korea’s political disaster in December highlighted buyers’ choice for BTC as a wealth-preservation asset in occasions of uncertainty. At press time, BTC trades at $105,761, up 1.2% up to now 24 hours.
Featured Picture from Unsplash.com, Charts from Bitwise and TradingView.com
