Writing a prediction piece is a humbling thought experiment. My three wild bets for the year-of-the-Tiger turned out to be wildly inaccurate. Particularly:
(1) I predicted that China would produce the following hit crypto sport. As a substitute, all the gaming sector launched many tokens, as a substitute of video games. I’m nonetheless hopeful although, primarily because of the considerable expertise from China. They simply know find out how to get individuals hooked on simulation containers.
(2) I predicted that Chinese language tech giants would go massive on NFTs. The combined actuality is that whereas Chinese language tech giants fled the NFT market as soon as the bear hit, there was a gentle stream of Chinese language celebrities launching NFTs as pet tasks. Some provincial governments additionally opened their arms to embrace NFTs as a way to invigorate the artistic trade.
(3) I predicted {that a} thousand DAOs would emerge from the Chinese language crypto neighborhood. As a substitute, we obtained ourselves a thousand airdrop-farming studios growing deep experience in anti-Sybil practices and accruing Factors. The few DAOs remaining are nonetheless energetic however gone are the times when making a DAO manifesto was thought-about horny.
Predictions are onerous as a result of we have a tendency to make use of the newest and in some way optimistic information factors to foretell a roller-coaster market. However this doesn’t imply that predicting them is much less enjoyable.
So right here we go once more! Listed below are my wild prognostications for China, crypto, and the 12 months of the Dragon!
1. Chinese language communities will invent and export new degen narratives
Probably the most missed hidden drive in crypto has all the time been the Chinese language aunties. They’ve single-handedly created terminologies, narratives, and even value actions on matters unknown to the western crypto Illuminati.
Do you know that the time period “KOL”—for Key Opinion Chief—originated in China? It’s an indeniable Chinglish phrase that exists solely as a result of Chinese language can’t pronounce the phrase “influencer.”
Final 12 months, Bitcoin Ordinals and Bitcoin layer-2’s caught most trade contributors off guard. Not solely did token costs go up, a brand new class of builders and funds began pouring sources into “make Bitcoin nice once more.”
“BRC20 and Ordi fascinated Chinese language communities to start with,” the pseudonymous 0XWizard, a number one KOL within the Bitcoin ecosystem, instructed me. “Chinese language are extra open to new token and asset requirements, so long as there is a wealth impact. Overlook about know-how—Chinese language will ape something that makes them cash.”
Intently following Bitcoin’s Renaissance was the beginning of ERC-404, a semi-fungible but fully unofficial token commonplace. Each share the identical origin—Chinese language devs. Whereas many alignment people criticized the dearth of endorsement of such a regular, I’m of the view that this child step is only a reflection of the Chinese language neighborhood’s urge to degen, at the price of making up a brand new commonplace!
However extra importantly, this new class of Chinese language builders has discovered just a few issues about crafting narratives—be it Bitcoin or ponzi token requirements. In 2024, I predict we’ll see extra authentic degen performs from the Chinese language neighborhood. Bonus prediction: A number of the mechanisms can be adopted and accepted by the broader crypto neighborhood.
2. Every part goes on-chain—even in China
Sure, we’re going on-chain.
Ranging from centralized exchanges, all high three exchanges are constructing out their Web3 kingdoms: a pockets, a local protocol, and lots of native dapps.
For instance, OKX launched its multi-chain pockets in 2023. It was the first non-custodial pockets to help Bitcoin Ordinals. The alternate additionally partnered with Polygon to launch a brand new layer-2 chain referred to as X1. Willingly, or unwillingly, Chinese language enterprise founders are constructing infrastructure and funneling current customers to the on-chain world.
Quest platforms are one other favourite of Chinese language builders. Galxe single-handedly funnels extra on-chain transactions than all different web sites mixed. Many of those quests are for airdrop farmers, however additionally they serve the top aim of rewarding customers to really use the blockchain.
Lastly, and maybe most significantly, Ethereum growth has additionally benefited from Chinese language researchers, particularly within the zero-knowledge and account abstraction area. Groups like Scroll and Taiko are scaling Ethereum aspect by aspect with the Ethereum Basis. Soul Pockets and Blocto are pushing on the smart-contract pockets entrance.
3. The flight of crypto individuals from the Center Kingdom
Just a few issues lingered in my head from final 12 months. Someday I obtained a Telegram message from a Chinese language crypto founder/buddy. I coated his story again in 2020. He requested if I can take that story down as a result of he doesn’t need the Chinese language authorities to determine him. This was pressing as a result of the federal government was in the course of cracking down on a number of crypto founders and traders.
This founder “wished to vanish from the web.”
We took the piece down. However the ask saddened me significantly as a result of he was within the first era of credible crypto builders who had delivered a strong DeFi product. Now he has to erase himself as a way to proceed working in our trade. Possibly “going anon” shouldn’t be a giant sacrifice for small enterprise builders, however for many who need their merchandise to the touch a billion individuals’s lives, “disappearing” is just not an choice.
Various existence exist, too. Singapore attracted an preliminary wave of wealthy crypto OGs, adopted by a small variety of builders (till 3AC occurred). Hong Kong took over the steam in 2022 because the native authorities brazenly embrace Web3.
Thailand turned the Backyard of Eden for younger, hipster, degenerative crypto idealists. In Dan Wang’s 2023 publication, he painted an image of the younger crypto runners participating in deep philosophical matters about nation state, geopolitics, well-being, and psychedelics, over scrumptious $2 greenback meals.
In Dubai, the place I reside, crypto has been in an “up solely” development. Most Chinese language exchanges have moved their world headquarters to the UAE. Crypto-native builders more and more deal with Dubai as a possible nest for residence (sure to 0% tax!).
In comparison with the COVID instances when residing overseas was a pressured selection, extra crypto natives now select to reside overseas. Just a few months right here and there turns into doable as fellow crypto native mates are equally cellular.
I predict 2024 is the 12 months when these dispersed nomadic communities develop greater, extra inclusive, and extra influential. I hope there are new permutations of those communities centered round ideology, religion, hobbies, tradition, and meals. Maybe the thought of DAO will come again. Maybe the following hit crypto sport can be born from such a gaggle. Maybe it’s simply the friendship individuals kind alongside the journey.
A ripple impact of getting a decentralized Chinese language neighborhood is that it forces us to be various. By bodily residing in one another’s international locations, we additional eradicate the boundaries between East and West.
The extra I believe by means of these bets, the extra I understand that these predictions are deeply rooted in my optimism in regards to the neighborhood. Because the crypto trade strikes into an on-chain bull market, the Chinese language neighborhood will even speed up at such tempo. In spite of everything, the “dragon” in Chinese language is identical character (龙) as “lengthy.” Lengthy the market—but in addition lengthy the Chinese language neighborhood!
