Dogecoin is at present buying and selling in a falling wedge, eyeing a breakout above $0.219.
An in depth above $0.22378 may sign a bullish development reversal.
On-chain exercise is rising, boosting the long-term bullish outlook.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has skilled notable turbulence over the previous week, with the favored meme coin shedding greater than 11% of its worth amid wider market volatility.
Though short-term losses have sparked concern amongst retail merchants, technical analysts, and blockchain exercise counsel that DOGE could also be positioning itself for a a lot bigger transfer.
DOGE value evaluation
Over the previous few days, Dogecoin has slipped from a neighborhood excessive of $0.25 to hover across the $0.2161 mark, reflecting a powerful pullback after a sustained rally earlier this month.
Regardless of the obvious weak point, this decline has not invalidated the broader bullish construction that analysts have been monitoring over current months.
On the four-hour chart, DOGE is at present buying and selling inside an outlined falling wedge sample, which is extensively considered a bullish formation when confirmed with a breakout.
Highlighting this setup, an analyst on X has famous that Dogecoin’s value has compressed between descending resistance close to $0.219 and assist simply above $0.212, forming a tightening vary.
4h $DOGE FW pic.twitter.com/aBCf1y5jaO
— #333kByJuly2025 (@CarpeNoctom) Might 17, 2025
The analyst’s chart additionally factors to Ichimoku Cloud metrics that present the worth hovering inside the equilibrium zone, suggesting that the present pause could precede a bigger directional transfer.
The high-confluence assist zone between $0.212 and $0.214, bolstered by the Ichimoku Span B, has already prompted intraday rebounds, hinting at sturdy purchaser curiosity close to that stage.
In the meantime, resistance on the higher wedge boundary coincides with the Kijun-sen (baseline) round $0.225, making a well-defined ceiling that must be breached for bullish momentum to renew.
Dogecoin value outlook
If Dogecoin manages a decisive four-hour candle shut above $0.219, Ali Martinez believes that the coin may shortly goal the earlier provide zone between $0.24 and $0.26.
This can be a main space of resistance for #Dogecoin $DOGE. A breakout right here may spark a brand new bull run!
Do not look forward to the breakout; as an alternative, put together for it! Go to @coinexcom, enroll utilizing my referral hyperlink https://t.co/73n8mW9Y5p, and be a part of me on this commerce. pic.twitter.com/yh52WFBHQt
— Ali (@ali_charts) Might 15, 2025
Nonetheless, a breakdown under the $0.205 assist stage would seemingly open the door to steeper declines, doubtlessly revisiting the April pivot low close to $0.185.
From a medium-term perspective, Dogecoin’s weekly chart paints a extra optimistic image, particularly because the token lately closed above the Bull Market Help Band.
This band, outlined by the 20-week easy shifting common and a two-sigma envelope, has acted as a significant barrier since early February, with current value motion flipping it into provisional assist.
Analyst Cantonese Cat has emphasised the importance of this breakout, arguing {that a} second consecutive weekly shut above $0.22378 would verify a broader development reversal.
Regardless of the pullback from $0.25, the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which overlaps with the Bull Market Help Band, stays the first pivot level for sustained bullish follow-through.
Including additional weight to this outlook, long-term chart patterns counsel Dogecoin has already accomplished a breakout above a multi-year descending resistance in late 2023.
In accordance with analyst Javon Marks, this structural change, marked by greater highs and better lows, confirms a bullish reversal from the prolonged bear market that started after its 2021 peak.
$DOGE and a +174% climb to its first goal at $0.6533 continues to be within the playing cards 🃏… https://t.co/7Jt82s0jLy
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) Might 18, 2025
Marks additionally identified that the current correction discovered assist at $0.16, establishing a better low that strengthens the case for a continued uptrend.
Based mostly on these developments, Marks has maintained a projected value goal of $0.6533, representing a possible 174% improve from present ranges.
He additionally famous that Dogecoin may finally revisit its earlier all-time excessive of $0.74 and even prolong positive aspects towards $1.25 if momentum builds and market sentiment improves.
Nonetheless, one other layer of resistance stays between $0.25 and $0.26, a zone that has persistently capped Dogecoin’s value since December 2024, in keeping with analyst Ali Martinez.
Repeated failures to interrupt by this stage earlier within the yr underscore the significance of a confirmed transfer above it for any sustained upward transfer to take maintain.
Whereas the technical image stays blended within the quick time period, Dogecoin’s on-chain knowledge provides one other bullish sign to the general outlook.
Blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock reported a surge in person engagement, with new addresses leaping by over 102% and energetic addresses climbing by greater than 111% in only one week.
Moreover, zero-balance addresses, usually related to elevated turnover and new exercise, rose by greater than 155%, reflecting renewed curiosity from each merchants and informal customers.
This resurgence in community exercise coincides with a broader market rally and means that Dogecoin’s current value drop could not mirror weakening fundamentals.
Ought to the worth break above the $0.219 and $0.26 resistance zones, it could nicely set off the following main rally towards the $0.65 goal outlined by bullish analysts.
However till then, each merchants and long-term holders might be watching key assist and resistance ranges intently, ready for the sign that confirms Dogecoin’s subsequent main transfer.
