Election Day Surge Drives Polymarket to New Volume, Open Interest Records – Decrypt

With U.S. voters hitting the polls Tuesday, a flurry of bets within the twilight of the 2024 race pushed Polymarket’s whole open curiosity to a record-breaking $463 million on Election Day.

Representing the full worth of positions held on the blockchain-based prediction platform, the measure had jumped 40% over the previous week from $329 million, in line with a Dune dashboard. In the meantime, a lot of the platform’s exercise had centered on America’s imminent selection between former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

Over $249 million was actively using on the U.S. presidential election’s winner as of Tuesday, rising 50% from $163 million over the previous week. Nevertheless, whether or not Trump’s 62% odds of victory would show correct was an open query, with thousands and thousands of ballots but to be solid and tallied.

Letting the free market weigh in on one of many nation’s most urgent questions this yr, Polymarket and different prediction platforms have exploded in reputation. Although Polymarket launched in 2020, Tuesday may very well be remembered as considered one of its most defining moments, as statisticians together with Polymarket advisor Nate Silver have referred to as the result a coin toss.

At its core, Polymarket has been portrayed as a brand new format for assessing present occasions by its 26-year-old founder and CEO Shayne Coplan. Constructing a product on crypto rails that’s turn into a rising a part of America’s political dialogue, he wrote on Twitter Monday that Polymarket’s presence is “unquestionably right here to remain,” whereas highlighting its rising Apple App Retailer rating.

Some could also be glued to Polymarket’s app as a political gauge shifting ahead, however open curiosity may very well be a unique story. In the course of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket’s open curiosity continued climbing till Joe Biden was inaugurated, after which it collapsed to $15 million from $33 million, in line with a separate Dune dashboard.

Polymarket has been hit with solely 4 days of internet outflows prior to now two months, rising strongest when merchants yanked $30 million from the platform in mid-October, in line with DefiLlama. Apart from that, inflows have been constant as bettors flock to the platform.

Because the 2024 race entered its most pivotal part, Polymarket registered its finest day when it comes to buying and selling quantity. The platform has logged practically $174 million price of buying and selling quantity to date Tuesday, per knowledge from Dune, in comparison with the earlier peak of $161 million on Monday.

Edited by Andrew Hayward