JPMorgan Chase Raises Recession Odds in US in 2024 | Entrepreneur

Because the U.S. economic system continues to stay unstable, JPMorgan Chase is warning {that a} recession just isn’t off the desk.

In an analyst observe revealed Wednesday, economists at JPMorgan raised the chances of a recession this 12 months from 25% to 35%, noting there’s additionally a forty five% probability of a recession within the second half of 2025.

Associated: Inventory Market Tumbles After World Selloff as Traders Panic Over Jobs Report, Financial Indicators

“U.S. wage inflation is now slowing in a way not seen in different DM [developed market] economies,” the observe stated. “Easing labor market situations enhance confidence each that service worth inflation will transfer decrease and that the Fed’s present coverage stance is restrictive.”

The observe additionally stated the financial institution believes the chances of the Federal Reserve will reduce charges in September and November 2024.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doubled down on the prediction in an interview with CNBC, saying he thinks a recession might be looming.

Associated: Jamie Dimon’s Coverage Recommendation for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris

“There’s a whole lot of uncertainty on the market. I’ve all the time pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all this stuff trigger some consternation in markets,” he stated. “I am absolutely optimistic that if now we have a light recession, even a more durable one, we’d be okay.”

The financial institution’s predictions got here after final week’s jobs report the place the unemployment fee reached 4.1% in June.

It has been a unstable week for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq resulting from heightened considerations in regards to the U.S. economic system.