Breakout from a seven-year double-bottom sample confirmed.
95% likelihood of spot ETF approval influencing sentiment.
XRP Ledger market cap-to-TVL ratio stands at about 2,200.
XRP has surged greater than 550% since November, climbing above $3 on Tuesday, and sparking discussions within the crypto market about its subsequent potential milestone.
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen has pointed to a long-term chart sample suggesting the token might rise to $34 by mid-2026.
This projection relies on the completion of a multi-year double-bottom construction, a bullish sample typically adopted by substantial worth strikes.
Historic precedents, latest authorized developments, and powerful ETF approval expectations are additionally influencing investor sentiment, though on-chain metrics level to valuation dangers that might mood the rally.
XRP is now buying and selling at $3.19, down by 0.79% up to now 24 hours.
Technical breakout factors to a multi-year rally
In accordance with Van Lagen, XRP has damaged out of a seven-year double-bottom sample after pushing above the neckline resistance close to $1.80.
The breakout was adopted by a retest of the neckline, which acted as help.
In technical evaluation, such a retest is commonly interpreted as affirmation of a robust breakout.
Utilizing a 2.00 Fibonacci extension, the measured-move projection from this setup factors to a goal of $34 by mid-2026.
This setup resembles XRP’s 2014–2017 worth motion, when an identical long-term base led to a parabolic rally of over 100,000%.
XRP’s markets have seen a number of situations of enormous features, together with a 1,072% rise from the 2022 lows and a 1,625% surge in the course of the 2020–2021 cycle.
Market drivers boosting XRP’s rally
The 2020–21 rally coincided with near-zero rates of interest within the US, whereas the present features have been pushed by developments within the Ripple lawsuit, improved authorized readability, alternate relistings, and optimism for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF).
In 2025, market sentiment has been significantly influenced by forecasts indicating a 95% likelihood of spot ETF approval.
Analysts recommend that if an approval comes by, XRP might climb towards $27, bringing it near Van Lagen’s goal.
The ETF narrative has helped keep bullish momentum this yr, with merchants factoring within the potential inflow of institutional capital.
In previous cycles, main inflows typically occurred when regulatory milestones have been reached, creating robust short-term surges.
Onchain metrics sign overvaluation dangers
Regardless of the robust rally, onchain knowledge highlights issues.
XRP Ledger (XRPL), the blockchain underpinning XRP, exhibits a lot decrease exercise ranges than different main layer 1 blockchains, together with Ethereum.
Information from DefiLlama signifies that whereas XRP has a market capitalisation of $190 billion, its whole worth locked (TVL) stands at simply $85 million — a ratio of about 2,200.
By comparability, Ethereum’s ratio is round 5.6, though XRP’s market worth is sort of 40% of Ethereum’s.
One other potential problem is that over 95% of XRP’s circulating provide is at the moment in revenue, in accordance with Glassnode.
Historic knowledge exhibits that in earlier rallies, such a degree of profitability typically preceded important worth corrections, as profit-taking intensified and promoting strain mounted.
This development was noticed in the course of the 2020–21 and 2022–25 cycles, when related situations led to pullbacks.
Whereas technical patterns and market drivers are at the moment supporting XRP’s bullish case, the imbalance between valuation and onchain exercise, coupled with elevated profit-taking potential, means that sustaining a rally towards $30 and past might face robust resistance.
